Cricket Toss Prediction: Tips and Tricks (2021)

Is the Cricket Toss Important?

The order in which a team bats or bowls has a huge role in determining the outcome of the match. A toss win is the first step of turning the match in one’s favour. At the outset, it is important to acknowledge that the toss win is extremely important, but it alone does not guarantee a win.

It is how the captains capitalise on the toss win, plan the game, and use the playing conditions in their team’s favour that charts the road to victory.

Below are a few open advantages of winning the toss:

• Mindset plays a huge factor in cricket, and winning the toss gives the psychological advantage of being in control from the very beginning.
• In case of new pitches, it gives time to analyse the pitch by bowling first.
• For pitches acclaimed for being batsmen or bowler-friendly, captains can take advantage of such conditions.
• There are weather predictions before every match, and captains can take advantage of the weather to their advantage. For example, if rain is predicted later during the day, the captain can opt to bat second as the DLS method will be used when it rains. The method is historically known to favour teams chasing the score.
• According to data cited by ESPN, teams winning the toss have won 6% more matches than their opponents.

Can Toss Wins Influence Matches?

Every team prepares a strategy as to how they will play if they win the toss. A toss win basically gives the team an opportunity to start the match in the manner in which they want to. Whether their decision takes the right course or not depends on their planning and execution skills.

If captains analyse the pitch carefully and synchronise their lineup to take advantage of the pitch, then yes, toss wins can influence matches.

An ideal start helps in executing the game plan piece by piece, unless, of course, the winning captain makes the wrong choice after winning the toss.

Empirical and statistical data can be used to study how batting or bowling first can turn the tide in one’s favour on a particular pitch. Every pitch behaves differently during different stretches of the game, in different formats of the sport itself.

For instance, in a day-night ODI match in a coastal city, the toss-winning team generally opts to bowl first due to the dew factor, which poses a greater challenge for bowlers at night. However, the same dew factor would not play that significant a role in Test matches.

It is important for bettors like you to know that the toss advantage also varies across different formats of cricket.

Test cricket

Test matches represent the original format of cricket, where both teams slug it out for five consecutive days. Data suggests that teams winning the toss win matches 2.6% more often.

From a general betting perspective, you can presume that captains will choose to bat first in most cases – the reason being that the pitch deteriorates towards the end of the match, making the pitch a hunting ground for pacers and spinners alike.

One Day International Cricket (ODI) 

ODIs are day and night matches starting in the afternoon and continuing late in the night, with 50 overs in each innings. Nowadays, even World Cup matches are held in this format.

The relevance of the toss win is higher in this format, with a 3.3% higher chance of victory by teams who win the toss.

The match is decided within a matter of few hours. There is very little room for strategy changes, and the option to bat or bowl has to be taken after carefully analysing the past trends on the pitch, the type of pitch, and the weather conditions.

For example, if there are weather predictions of drizzle or dew in the night, the toss-winning team might prefer to bat second to take advantage of the bowling disadvantage posed by such conditions – and, of course, the opponent’s strengths and weaknesses.

T20 cricket

The shortest format is surprisingly the least affected by toss wins. The T20 format is all about smashing runs. Traditional cricket rules and techniques do not influence this format much.

Teams do not mind losing wickets or leaking runs as long as they have the arsenal to knock boundaries. That said, most captains prefer to chase the score in this format.

Toss Prediction Strategy

The best betting strategies should incorporate the element of toss prediction in their models. The toss result cannot be predicted, but you can attempt to predict what the captain might choose if they win the toss. This, however, requires a lot of cricket knowledge and on-the-feet thinking. 

Here are some methods how you can predict the toss:

Exchange of Squad Sheets

The captains exchange their squad sheets before the toss, which is the first time when the team lineup is declared. The team lineup reveals the intent and mindset with which the team is approaching the game.

Factors like the number of spinners, all-rounders, pacers, and who the opening batsmen are will be mentioned on the squad sheet. Experienced bettors use this knowledge to gauge the strategy of the team and, in turn, predict what the winning team might choose to do if the toss turns in its favour.

Captain’s Call

You can anticipate the toss behaviour of captains by looking at their previous decisions on the same pitch or against the same team, and place your bet accordingly.

There are also captains who will always opt to bat or bowl, no matter the pitch conditions or opponent’s lineup. You can accordingly make bets on their selection if they win the toss.